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Gartner Hype Cycle
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With the constant hype surrounding new technologies and their bold promises, how can we tell what is commercially viable and what is not? And to what extent are the claims surrounding these hypes true?
To better understand the innovative technologies of the future, the Gartner Hype Cycle provides a graphical representation of the use and resolution of new technology opportunities. This method gives you an overview of how a technology will develop over time and how its correct use and management in the right context can be relevant to your business goals.
how does the method work?
Hype cycles provide a snapshot of when a technology becomes relevant and the first attempts are made to turn it into viable business approaches. The Y-axis of the cycle shows the level of recognized attention, while the X-axis shows the elapsed time since the technology became known. They highlight overhyped areas, estimate when innovations and trends will reach maturity, and offer actionable advice to help your organization determine the right time for adoption. The hype cycle helps clients understand the promise of new technologies in the context of their industry and risk appetite. Could it be worth waiting for further maturation? If too many questions remain unanswered about the commercial viability of a new technology, it may be better to wait until others have added value.Use the following phases to understand the hype cycle and adapt it to your needs:A technology (or related service and discipline innovation) goes through several phases on its path to productivity:
- Innovation Trigger (formerly called Technology Trigger): The technology becomes known and the first projects attract a lot of public interest.
- Peak of inflated expectations: A wave of "buzz" builds and expectations of the innovation exceed the current reality of its capabilities. The technology is at the peak of attention.
- Low point of disillusionment: As the technology fails to meet the expectations previously built up, the attention of disappointed enthusiasts and media representatives declines.
- Enlightenment phase: In this phase, the new technology is viewed realistically with its strengths and weaknesses. Some early adopters overcome the initial hurdles, experience the first benefits and continue their efforts. The companies use the experiences of the early adopters.
- Productivity plateau: The new possibilities offered by the technology are accepted as advantages and business processes are developed.
Step by Step Guide
A new technology goes through five stages in this process. A wave-shaped curve representing the cycle shows the reaction to or interest in a technology or invention as it develops. Gartner creates a graphical representation of the maturity cycle using a series of indicators. The (horizontal) timeline of the Hype Cycle shows how a technology evolves from one phase to the next over time. The y-axis symbolizes the "expectations", which can rise or fall over time.
The anticipated technical breakthrough occurs when a public announcement, demonstration or other event sparks interest. The increased media attention that results from increased awareness can spread the invention further and raise expectations of value. In many cases, there is currently no viable solution and commercial feasibility has not yet been demonstrated.
As the idea is already well known, several venture capitalists and companies get involved at this stage in the expectation of securing a potential first mover advantage. Expectations are high, and greater media attention will only increase them. While some companies are investing in the technology without a firm plan, many others are waiting and following the stories of success and failure. More and more vendors are delivering products that either compete or complement each other.
In this phase, the great enthusiasm for innovation begins to wane. Interest wanes due to implementations that are not successful. Poor performance and unfulfilled sales expectations lead to disillusionment. The same media that initially generated attention begin to criticize the invention. All this leads to the invention being accepted less quickly or more slowly.
After the initial disappointment, companies take time to fully evaluate a technology. Early adopters who have overcome the initial challenges and see a net benefit are more likely to continue. In addition, other companies get useful tips from the successful early adopters on how to apply the innovation. Both performance and investment have increased.
This is the real goal. In this phase, where the benefits are clearly established, the adoption of the invention or technology gathers pace. The standards for determining the profitability of the supplier are also clarified.
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