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Futures Wheel
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The Futures Wheel Method is a brainstorming technique that is particularly useful in the field of trend research.
With the Future Wheel method, future scenarios or consequences based on concrete developments / trends / events can be easily identified in an explorative way. The method makes it possible to develop a future-oriented understanding of current issues. The method was developed by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971.
how does the method work?
The Future Wheel Canvas is simple in its presentation (similar to a mind map) - ultimately a network of interlinked consequences that result from the event or trend placed in the center.
Here, you think in terms of primary and secondary consequences or "if X, then Y, if Y, then Z".
One use case could be the remote work trend, for example, which has become increasingly popular among employees due to the COVID-19 crisis.
One consequence (1) of the "remote work" trend in the future could be that people undertake less business travel and as a result (2) better virtual tool substitutes for the office experience are provided/demanded.
Step by Step Guide
Here's how to apply the Future Wheel Method:
Choose a trend or event that you would like to examine more closely in relation to a use case. Position this trend / event centrally in the middle of the canvas (~ 5 min.)
First, immediate consequences surrounding the event are collected on sticky notes "1st Order Consequences". This can be done together in the group or individually. The discussion also includes the clustering of consequences, if the points are duplicated or similar ~10 min)
Discuss the first mapped consequences and then go back to brainstorming for "2nd order consequences" based on the first consequences already outlined (~10 min.)
Discuss the newly mapped consequences again in the group and consider what implications this has for your use case and what (prioritized) actions you can draw from it (~15 min.)
method canvas
Use canvas
in Miro
or
pdf file
