Futures Toolkit
.svg)
.svg)
.svg)
Der Versuch, die Zukunft vorherzusagen, birgt viele Unsicherheiten. Verschiedene philosophische Perspektiven auf die Zukunft betonen, dass sie kein einzelnes Gebilde ist, sondern vielmehr eine Sammlung von Möglichkeiten, die durch menschliches Handeln geformt werden. Daher ist die Trendforschung wichtig, die sich darauf konzentriert, mehrere Zukünfte zu erforschen, anstatt ein einziges Ergebnis vorherzusagen. Auch kognitive Voreingenommenheiten (cognitive biases) müssen berücksichtigt werden, da sie eine genaue Vorausschau behindern, wie z. B. der Normalitätsbias, das Gesetz der kleinen Zahlen, der Bestätigungsbias, der Überoptimismus und der Recency Bias.
Various philosophical perspectives on the future are emphasising that it is not a singular entity but rather a collection of possibilities shaped by human actions. Therefore, trend research is important, focusing on exploring multiple futures rather than predicting a single outcome. Cognitive biases also need to be considered as they hinder accurate foresight, such as normalcy bias, the law of small numbers, confirmation bias, over-optimism, and recency bias.
When playing with a future scenario, keep in mind two important rules:
- Suspend your disbelief: No matter how strange the scenario seems to you, accept that this future is possible and works as described. Don’t get into a mental argument with yourself about why it would never happen or it could never work. In order to train your brain to think the unthinkable, you have to actively put possibilites in your brain that your brain will naturally resist.
- See the future scenario from your unique point of view: If you wake up in this new world someday, you will still be you. A scenario isn’t an exercise in fiction, it’s an opportunity for personal exploration.
Embracing uncertainty and exploring multiple futures is significant for fostering innovation. By challenging preconceived notions and cognitive biases, individuals and organisations can better prepare for the complexities of an ever-evolving future.
Why is this Warum ist das für Innovation wichtig? for innovation
This discussion is important for innovation because it challenges traditional notions of predicting the future and encourages a more exploratory approach. By acknowledging the plurality of futures and understanding cognitive biases, innovators can better navigate uncertainty and develop strategies that are adaptable to various potential outcomes. Embracing diverse perspectives and actively engaging with future scenarios enables organisations to anticipate and respond effectively to changes in their industry.
Was dich in diesem Toolkit erwartet
This toolkit includes interactive methods & tools as well as book and article recommendations, each offering a unique approach on trying to see the future coming:
Tools & Methods
- Futures Wheel: A method facilitating trend research by enabling the identification of future scenarios based on concrete developments, fostering a future-oriented understanding of current issues.
- Future Thinking Canvas: The method encourages divergent thinking and structured exploration of potential futures, equipping individuals to proactively tackle un-thinkable challenges with a positive attitude.
- Flip the Future: The method is about challenging assumptions by flipping them to envision radical changes and exploring its implications.
- The Thing From The Future: An imagination game that challenges players to collaboratively and competitively describe objects from a range of alternative futures.
- The Tarot Cards of Tech: It inspires conversations about technology's impact, prompting to consider both unintended consequences and opportunities for positive change and aiding in crafting the best possible product.
Read & Listen
- The Book Imaginable explores how to see the future coming and feel ready for anything – even things that seem impossible today
- The Podcast Predicting the Future of Travel discusses how to use innovative ways to identify global trends that help predict the future of the travel industry
- The Article Aviation’s metaverse future in four scenarios is embarking on a journey into the possible future of the metaverse.
- The Article Using Science Fiction to explore Business Innovation is about how fictional worlds allow new products and their use to be explored without the strictures of money or technological capability hampering creativity.
.svg)